How Luxury Watch Buyers Actually Decide is an original research study by Deus Marketing mapping the full purchase journey across 30 watch and jewellery brands. The headline finding: the platforms where buyers make their decisions (Reddit, YouTube, pre-owned marketplaces, collector forums) are almost entirely disconnected from the platforms where brands spend their marketing budgets. We tracked how buyers move from initial interest to purchase across six touchpoints: AI search, social media, brand websites, YouTube and editorial, collector communities, and the secondary market. What follows is the data.
The luxury watch market reached $84.77 billion in 2026, growing at a pace that masks a structural problem underneath. The secondary market alone hit $16.7 billion in 2025, up 36.4% year-on-year, with pre-owned dealer sales generating $15.65 billion. That secondary market is now large enough to reshape how people discover, evaluate, and choose watches in the first place.
At the same time, AI Overviews now appear in roughly 48% of all Google searches, up from 34.5% in December 2025. When someone asks ChatGPT or Perplexity to recommend the best luxury watch under $10,000, the answer gets assembled from Reddit threads, YouTube reviews, and editorial content. Not from rolex.com or omegawatches.com. The brands themselves are absent from the platforms that increasingly shape purchase decisions.
Gen Z is accelerating this shift. According to a BCG survey, 54% of Gen Z respondents increased their spending on luxury watches since 2021. Sotheby's estimated nearly a third of its watch sales went to buyers aged 30 and under. These buyers are digital natives. They research on Reddit, watch YouTube reviews before spending, and buy pre-owned as a default rather than a compromise. The purchase journey they follow looks nothing like the one most watch brands have built their marketing around. For a broader view of how this fits into luxury marketing, see our guide to luxury watch and jewellery marketing.
We selected 30 brands across four categories: Prestige Watches (10 brands), Jewellery Houses (8), Independent and Emerging Watchmakers (6), and Pre-Owned and Retail Platforms (6). The sample includes heritage houses (Rolex, Patek Philippe, Cartier), emerging luxury players (Grand Seiko, Tudor), and genuinely independent watchmakers (F.P. Journe, MB&F, H. Moser & Cie) to capture the full spectrum of how buyers evaluate options.
Data was collected between March and May 2026 across six touchpoints. AI visibility was tested by running 20 high-intent watch and jewellery purchase queries across ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Google AI Overviews. Social media data was gathered from Instagram and TikTok. YouTube and editorial influence was assessed through subscriber counts, view data, and content analysis of the top 15 watch channels. Collector community presence was evaluated across Reddit (r/watches, r/rolex, r/watchexchange, r/jewelry), WatchUSeek, and brand-specific forums. Secondary market data was sourced from Chrono24, EveryWatch, and Morgan Stanley's Swiss Watch Industry Report.
| Category | Brands | Count |
|---|---|---|
| Prestige Watches | Rolex, Omega, Patek Philippe, Audemars Piguet, Vacheron Constantin, IWC, Jaeger-LeCoultre, A. Lange & Sohne, Breguet, Breitling | 10 |
| Jewellery Houses | Cartier, Tiffany & Co., Van Cleef & Arpels, Bulgari, Chopard, Harry Winston, Piaget, Graff | 8 |
| Independent / Emerging | Grand Seiko, Tudor, Nomos Glashutte, F.P. Journe, MB&F, H. Moser & Cie | 6 |
| Pre-Owned / Retail Platforms | Chrono24, Hodinkee, Watches of Switzerland, Bob's Watches, The RealReal, WatchBox | 6 |
The first thing many potential watch buyers now do is ask an AI assistant. "Best luxury watch under $5,000." "Omega vs Rolex for first luxury watch." "Is Cartier Tank a good investment?" These queries are growing as AI Overviews expand to nearly half of all Google searches. The problem for watch brands is where AI gets its answers.
Based on our testing of 20 high-intent watch purchase queries across ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Google AI Overviews, the sources cited most frequently for watch recommendations follow a consistent pattern.
| Rank | Source Type | Examples | Citation Frequency |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | r/watches (3.4M members), r/rolex, r/watchexchange | Cited in 85% of tested queries across all platforms | |
| 2 | YouTube reviewers | Teddy Baldassarre, The Urban Gentry, Jenni Elle | Cited in 70% of Google AI Overviews |
| 3 | Watch editorial | Hodinkee, Fratello, Worn & Wound, SJX Watches | Cited in 65% of queries, especially Perplexity |
| 4 | Wikipedia | Brand pages, model history pages | Cited in 55% of ChatGPT responses |
| 5 | Forums | WatchUSeek (614K members, 24M posts) | Cited in 40% of queries, especially comparison queries |
| 6 | Brand websites | Official brand sites and online boutiques | Cited in less than 15% of tested queries |
Brand websites appeared as cited sources in fewer than 15% of the queries we tested. Reddit appeared in 85%. The reason is structural. Watch brand websites are built for brand storytelling: full-screen campaign imagery, minimal text, product pages that describe materials and movements but rarely answer the comparative questions buyers actually ask. Reddit threads, by contrast, are dense with the exact content AI systems prefer: direct answers, comparison opinions, price context, and personal experience.
WatchUSeek, with 614,000 members and 24 million posts, is the deepest watch-specific forum online. Its high-end watch section alone has 117,000 posts and 31 million views. This content is being ingested and cited by AI systems when people ask about luxury watches. The brands have no presence in these conversations.
The most commercially valuable watch queries are comparison and recommendation queries. "Rolex Submariner vs Omega Seamaster." "Best dress watch under $10,000." "Cartier Tank vs JLC Reverso." These are the queries that sit closest to a purchase decision. They are also the queries where brand websites are least likely to appear, because no watch brand publishes content comparing itself to competitors. The answers come from Reddit, YouTube, and editorial sites. The brands that appear in those answers get considered. The brands that don't, get filtered out before the buyer ever visits an official boutique. For more on this problem across luxury, see our research on AI brand visibility for luxury.
Before a luxury watch buyer visits a boutique, they watch YouTube. This is not speculative. Teddy Baldassarre has 1.4 million subscribers and operates as both an educational channel and an authorized dealer. Hodinkee generates 48 million views per year. The top 15 watch YouTube channels collectively reach more people than any individual brand's own content.
| Channel / Platform | Reach | Role in Purchase Journey |
|---|---|---|
| Teddy Baldassarre | 1.4M YouTube subscribers | Education + authorized retail. Reviews directly drive sales. |
| Hodinkee | 48M views/year, 1.5M social followers | Editorial authority. Shapes perception of what is worth buying. |
| The Urban Gentry | 800K+ subscribers | Community-focused. Strong influence on entry and mid-range luxury. |
| Watchfinder & Co. | 1.5M+ subscribers | Pre-owned retailer. Reviews double as sales content. |
| Jenni Elle | 500K+ subscribers | Growing female watch audience. Expanding the buyer demographic. |
The line between education and retail has collapsed. Teddy Baldassarre started as a reviewer and became an authorized dealer. Watchfinder produces review content that feeds directly into its pre-owned sales business. Hodinkee, which began as a blog, now sells watches. The creators who educate buyers are also the ones selling to them. This means the brands that get reviewed, featured, and recommended by these channels have a direct pipeline to sales. The brands that don't are relying on buyers to find them on their own.
On TikTok, the pattern is similar but earlier in the funnel. According to TikTok's own data, 26% of luxury shoppers wait for creator reviews before buying, and 32% discover brands through creator content. 70% of TikTok's luxury audience has spent over GBP 1,000 on a single fashion item after watching creator content. For watch brands, TikTok is increasingly the discovery layer, while YouTube is the evaluation layer.
Reddit's r/watches has 3.4 million members. That is larger than the Instagram followings of Omega (4M), Audemars Piguet (3M), IWC, Jaeger-LeCoultre, and Panerai combined. The watch-related subreddit ecosystem extends well beyond the main community.
| Subreddit | Members | Role |
|---|---|---|
| r/watches | 3.4M | General discussion, wrist shots, buying advice, reviews |
| r/rolex | 400K+ | Rolex-specific discussion, availability updates, AD experiences |
| r/watchexchange | 350K+ | Peer-to-peer buying and selling. Active marketplace. |
| r/WatchesCirclejerk | 300K+ | Satire and criticism. Shapes perception of brand pretension. |
| r/RepTime (and successors) | 200K+ | Replica discussion. Signals demand that brands fail to capture. |
| r/jewelry | 250K+ | Jewellery discussion, engagement rings, brand recommendations |
Zero of the 30 brands in our sample have an official, verified Reddit presence. The conversations about Rolex availability, Omega value propositions, Cartier's rise with younger buyers, and Patek Philippe pricing are happening entirely without brand participation. Those conversations are then cited by AI platforms as authoritative sources and surfaced to millions of potential buyers.
WatchUSeek adds another layer. With 614,000 members and 24 million posts, it is the most established watch forum online. Its classified section functions as a marketplace. Its discussion threads are deep, technical, and heavily referenced by AI systems when processing watch queries. The forum's high-end section has accumulated 31 million views, mostly from serious buyers doing pre-purchase research.
The collector communities serve a specific function in the purchase journey: they are where consideration becomes decision. A buyer might discover a brand on TikTok, learn about it on YouTube, and then go to Reddit or WatchUSeek to ask: "Is this actually worth the money?" The answer they get from the community is often the final input before they walk into a boutique or place an order on Chrono24.
The pre-owned luxury watch market hit $16.7 billion in 2025. That figure grew 36.4% in a single year. The secondary market is no longer an aftermarket. For many buyers, it is the market.
| Metric | 2025 Figure | Context |
|---|---|---|
| Total secondary market value | $16.7 billion | +36.4% year-on-year growth |
| Dealer pre-owned sales | $15.65 billion | +38.3% from 2024 |
| Auction results | $1.09 billion | +14% year-on-year |
| Rolex secondary market share | 36.8% ($5.6B) | Dominant but slowly declining from 2022 peak |
| Rolex CPO sales | ~$590M | +204% year-on-year. 227 points of sale. |
| Cartier secondary share | 8.9% | Up from 5.7% in 2019. 4x increase among Gen Z. |
| Pre-owned price trend | +4.9% | First positive year since 2022 |
| New vs pre-owned price gap | 30%+ | Brands raised new prices ~7% in 2025, widening the gap |
| Chrono24 monthly users | 9 million | 560,000 watches listed at any given time |
The data tells a clear story. Brands raised new watch prices by an average of 7% in 2025, pushing the gap between new and pre-owned to over 30% for most references. That gap gives buyers a financial reason to go pre-owned. Rolex's Certified Pre-Owned programme generated roughly $590 million in sales, a 204% increase year-on-year, now operating across 227 points of sale with approximately 8,500 watches available at any time. Rolex is the only brand that has built a significant owned presence in the secondary market.
Chrono24 sits at the centre of this touchpoint. With 9 million monthly users and 560,000 listed watches, it functions as both a marketplace and a research tool. Buyers use it to check prices, compare references, and understand market value before purchasing either new or pre-owned. Chrono24's pricing data is now foundational to how buyers evaluate whether a watch is worth its retail price. If a watch trades below retail on the secondary market, buyers question whether the retail price is justified. That dynamic gives the secondary market outsized influence over the primary market.
| Brand | Secondary Market Share (2025) | Trend | Key Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rolex | 36.8% | Slowly declining from 2022 peak | CPO programme growing fast. Still dominant. |
| Omega | 2nd highest share | Growing steadily | Strong value retention. Increasing demand in H1 2025. |
| Cartier | 8.9% | Rising sharply (was 5.7% in 2019) | Gen Z driven. Tank and Santos-Dumont leading. |
| Patek Philippe | Declining | Lost 8.2% market share in H1 2025 | Post-speculation correction. Serious collectors only. |
| Audemars Piguet | Stable | Royal Oak: ~EUR 860M in transaction value | Concentrated demand in Royal Oak. |
| Vacheron Constantin | Growing | +13.4% market share increase | Overtaking Patek and AP in secondary growth. |
Vacheron Constantin's 13.4% market share increase is one of the most notable movements in the data. The brand has gained ground by appealing to collectors moving beyond the Rolex-AP-Patek trinity, often after those buyers have been priced out of the most sought-after references from those three brands. For more on how premium brands can position in competitive markets, see our guide to luxury brand positioning.
Watch and jewellery brands have built large social followings. But the role social media plays in the watch purchase journey is narrower than most marketing teams assume.
| Brand | Instagram Followers | Content Approach | Engagement Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rolex | 15.7M | Product-focused, aspirational, tightly controlled | 12.9% audience growth rate (fastest in watches) |
| Cartier | 14M | Heritage + contemporary. UGC and influencer integration. | Strong Gen Z resonance. Jewellery-led content outperforms watches. |
| Tiffany & Co. | 14.2M | Lifestyle and gifting. AR try-on drove 37% digital engagement increase. | Gen Z acquisition via digital innovation. |
| Omega | 4M | Ambassador-led (James Bond, Olympic partnerships) | Steady engagement. Lower follower count offset by brand authority. |
| Audemars Piguet | 3M | Craft and heritage storytelling | Small but highly engaged collector audience. |
| Patek Philippe | 1.8M | Minimal social presence. Brand-controlled scarcity. | Lowest follower count among top brands. Highest secondary prices. |
| Bulgari | 13.2M | Jewellery-forward. Celebrity partnerships. | Strong visual identity. High impressions, lower conversion to watch interest. |
Patek Philippe's position in this table is the most instructive data point. It has the smallest Instagram following among the major prestige brands (1.8 million) and arguably the strongest brand equity in the entire watch industry. Patek's secondary market prices remain among the highest. Its Nautilus generated roughly EUR 745 million in secondary transaction value. Social media following correlates with visibility, not with brand strength or purchase intent.
The jewellery houses tell a different story. Cartier and Tiffany both have 14M+ followers and use social media more actively for commercial purposes. Tiffany's AR try-on app drove a 37% increase in digital engagement and 22% more sales conversions among Gen Z. For jewellery, where the average purchase value is lower and impulse plays a larger role, social media is a more direct sales channel. For watches, where the research cycle is longer and purchase consideration is deeper, social media functions primarily as a brand awareness tool rather than a conversion driver. For platform-specific strategies, see our guides to social media for luxury brands and TikTok for luxury brands.
Offline retail remains the dominant purchase channel for luxury watches, accounting for 66.84% of sales in 2025. Online channels are growing at 7.34% CAGR (2026-2031), but the conversion rates tell you how the channel actually works: luxury watch e-commerce converts at 0.5-1%, among the lowest of any product category.
The low conversion rate is not a failure of the websites. It reflects how the channel is used. Brand websites and authorized dealer sites are confirmation tools, not discovery tools. Buyers arrive at omega.co.uk or cartier.com after they have already decided what they want. They have researched on Reddit, watched reviews on YouTube, checked prices on Chrono24, and asked for opinions on WatchUSeek. The brand website is the last touchpoint, not the first.
This has implications for how brands should invest in their digital presence. Most watch brand websites are built as brand storytelling platforms: full-screen imagery, campaign films, immersive animations. That content is beautiful. It is also invisible to AI search, unhelpful for comparison queries, and structured in a way that makes it impossible for AI systems to extract and cite. The brands that invest in structured, information-rich web content (sizing guides, comparison resources, maintenance information, price context) will capture more value from the buyers who have already been convinced by the research they did elsewhere.
Gen Z is not just entering the luxury watch market. They are buying differently from every previous generation, and their behaviour is reshaping the market in ways that will compound over the next decade.
| Metric | Data Point | Source |
|---|---|---|
| Spending increase | 54% of Gen Z increased luxury watch spending since 2021 | BCG Survey |
| Purchase intent | 20% of 18-24 year olds plan to buy a luxury watch in the next year | Chrono24 First-Time Buyer Report |
| Auction participation | Nearly 1/3 of Sotheby's watch sales went to buyers aged 30 and under | Sotheby's |
| Average spend | Gen Z spends the most on average per single watch purchase | Chrono24 data |
| Cartier preference | Cartier's Gen Z purchase share: 1.7% to 6.8% over 7 years (4x increase) | Chrono24-Fratello Report |
| Style preference | Gen Z buys more dress watches than any other demographic | Chrono24 data |
The dress watch revival is the most counterintuitive finding. After decades of steel sports watch dominance (Rolex Submariner, AP Royal Oak, Patek Nautilus), Gen Z is gravitating toward slimmer, more elegant pieces. Cartier's Tank, JLC's Reverso, and vintage dress references are gaining share. Demand for rectangular cases rose 9.3% in 2025, breaking the round-case dominance that defined the previous decade. Gen Z buyers want to stand out rather than blend in, and a Cartier Tank on a leather strap achieves that more effectively than a steel sports watch that every other collector already owns.
The purchase journey for Gen Z is also more compressed and more digital. They discover brands on TikTok, evaluate on YouTube and Reddit, check prices on Chrono24, and buy pre-owned as a first choice rather than a fallback. The pre-owned price gap of 30%+ gives them a financial reason, and the Chrono24-Fratello report confirms that Gen Z is the demographic driving secondary market growth fastest.
The traditional luxury watch purchase funnel assumed buyers started at the brand (through advertising or boutique visits) and moved toward purchase. The data shows the opposite. Buyers start with peer opinions (Reddit, YouTube, forums), move to price validation (Chrono24, secondary market), and only visit the brand website or boutique as a final confirmation step. The brands that win are the ones present at the top of this inverted funnel, in the communities and content platforms where decisions actually form.
When a Rolex Submariner trades at 20% above retail on the secondary market, that signals scarcity and desirability that drives primary demand. When a brand's watches trade at 30% below retail, it signals the opposite. Chrono24's pricing data has become the de facto value benchmark for the industry. Buyers check secondary market prices before purchasing new. Brands that ignore secondary market dynamics are ignoring the single largest influence on their perceived value.
Cartier's secondary market share grew from 5.7% to 8.9% between 2019 and 2025. Its Gen Z purchase share quadrupled from 1.7% to 6.8%. The brand is capturing the next generation of luxury buyers more effectively than any other house in the sample. The reason is product-market fit. Cartier's Tank and Santos lines are distinct, recognisable, and positioned at a price point ($3,000-$8,000) that functions as an entry to luxury for younger buyers. The brand is benefiting from a generational aesthetic shift toward elegance over sportiness.
Teddy Baldassarre has 1.4 million subscribers and operates as an authorized dealer. His reviews directly convert into sales. Hodinkee generates 48 million views per year and has integrated retail into its editorial platform. The top watch YouTube channels are not influencers in the traditional sense. They are the primary product education layer for the entire industry. A single detailed review from one of these channels drives more informed purchase decisions than any brand campaign. Brands that are not actively represented in this content ecosystem are missing the touchpoint that matters most for high-consideration purchases.
r/watches has 3.4 million members. Those members generate the content that AI platforms cite when recommending watches. Those AI citations reach millions of additional buyers. The entire chain, from Reddit post to AI citation to purchase consideration, happens without any brand involvement. Luxury watch brands are allowing strangers to write their sales narrative and having that narrative amplified by AI to an audience that keeps growing as AI search expands. The opportunity cost is enormous and compounds with every quarter that brands remain absent.
The findings point to seven actions for marketing teams in 2026 and 2027.
Map your actual purchase journey, not the one you assume. Survey recent buyers. Ask where they first heard about the brand, what they researched, which platforms they used, and what the final trigger was. Most marketing teams will discover that the real purchase journey looks nothing like their media plan.
Build a Reddit and forum strategy. Identify the 10-15 subreddits and forums where your brand is discussed. Understand the sentiment. Consider verified brand participation where appropriate. At minimum, monitor the conversations that are shaping AI citations about your brand.
Invest in YouTube and editorial relationships. The top watch YouTube channels and editorial platforms are the industry's product education layer. Ensure your brand is represented accurately and favourably in this content. Loan programmes, brand access for reviewers, and editorial partnerships are higher-ROI investments than most traditional advertising.
Own your secondary market narrative. Rolex's CPO programme generated $590 million because it understood that the secondary market shapes primary demand. Other brands need a position on the secondary market, whether that is a CPO programme, authorized pre-owned partnerships, or at minimum a pricing strategy that accounts for secondary market dynamics.
Create AI-extractable content. Publish editorial content that answers the questions buyers actually ask. Comparison guides, buying guides, sizing information, maintenance advice. Structure it with clear headings, data tables, and sourced statistics. This content serves both SEO and AI visibility simultaneously.
Rethink social media's role. For watches, social media is a brand awareness tool, not a conversion driver. Stop measuring social success by engagement rate and start measuring it by contribution to the purchase journey. A buyer who follows you on Instagram but makes their decision on Reddit is not a social media conversion.
Build for Gen Z's purchase journey specifically. 20% of 18-24 year olds plan to buy a luxury watch in the next year. They research digitally, buy pre-owned as default, and trust creator content over brand advertising. If your marketing is still built around print advertising, boutique events, and controlled distribution, you are invisible to the demographic that will drive the next decade of growth. For a full strategic framework, see our guide to luxury digital strategy.
This data shows that the luxury watch purchase journey has fundamentally reorganised itself around platforms and communities that most brands do not participate in. Reddit has 3.4 million watch enthusiasts generating the content that AI platforms cite to millions more. YouTube reviewers have become the industry's product education system. The secondary market, at $16.7 billion and growing 36% annually, now determines how buyers perceive value. And Gen Z, the generation that will drive the next decade of growth, follows a purchase path that is entirely digital, community-driven, and pre-owned-first.
The brands that treat this data as a marketing problem to solve will build content infrastructure across these touchpoints. The brands that treat it as noise will keep spending more to reach fewer people through channels that influence less every quarter.
The purchase journey has already changed. The question is whether the brands will catch up.
If you want a luxury watch marketing strategy built on how buyers actually decide, get in touch.
Methodology note: This study was conducted by Deus Marketing between March and May 2026. AI visibility was tested across 20 high-intent queries on ChatGPT, Perplexity, and Google AI Overviews. Social media data from platform analytics and Dash Social 2026 benchmarks. Secondary market data from Chrono24 Secondary Watch Market Report H1 2025, EveryWatch Annual Report 2025, and Morgan Stanley Swiss Watch Industry Report. Community data from Reddit, WatchUSeek, and forum analysis. YouTube and editorial reach from public subscriber and view data. Gen Z buying behaviour from Chrono24-Fratello Report, BCG Survey, and Sotheby's auction data. Full methodology available on request.
